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Saturday, May 07, 2011

What Happened To The Champs?

  So far after 35 games this season the San Francisco Giants sit 2nd in the division at 19-16, 0.5 GB of the leading Colorado Rockies. The only thing keeping them in the hunt is the recent poor play of the Rockies. Last year at this time they were leading the division with a neat and tidy 16-10 record. The only reason they are second though is because of how bad the other teams in the division are. The LA Dodgers sit behind the Giants, for now. With all the off field drama distracting the team from baseball, the Dodgers will be lucky to finish with a .500 team this year. Then there is Arizona at 15-19, who are capable of being an above .500 team. And taking up last place in the division, last in the NL and 2nd last in the league (just ahead of the Twin's and Astro's) sits the San Diego Padres, and the only thing that can save them is a miracle. Now remember this San Fran team is virtually unchanged from the team that won it all, they have successfully retained just about everyone but SS Edgar Renteria (who was the WS MVP).  

  So whats the problem? Well most fans would be quick to point out the injuries the Giants have sustained. While that may be part of the issue, it's a hard case to make with these 2011 Giants. To date the only pitchers on the 15 day DL are: Santiago Casilla (Inflamed right elbow) and Barry Zito (Right mid-foot sprain) both due back in mid to late May and the hitters: Mark DeRosa (3B) (Inflammation in left wrist) Placed on DL on April 27. was hitting .333 in 11 games before being injured has unknown return date. Andres Torres, (CF) due back early may (Strained left Achilles tendon) and the biggest cause for concern is Pablo Sandoval,(3B/1B) Due back in June (Broken hamate bone in right hand), and arguably the best hitter on the team was hitting .313 with 5 homers and 14 RBI's before getting injured. So lets look at the numbers and see if these guys really impact the line up enough to hurt the Giants.


  On the offensive side, we already know that "Panda" being out is going to hurt. The young star has lost a considerable amount of weight, starting to play good defence and was swinging a hot stick. As mentioned above was hitting .313 (leading the team), with 5 homers, which lead the team and 14 RBI's (3rd on the team) in 24 games. So obviously him being out will slow the team down, but what about DeRosa and Torres. Torres, in his first 8 games of this season, he was hitting .286 with 0 HR, 0 RBI and 7 SO. I'll admit 8 games is no indication of how much he means to the team. In 2010, Andres hit .268 with,16 HR, 63 RBI with a 128 SO in 139 games. But where the Giants really miss him is in CF. He is flawless in the OF especially in CF. In 285 career games Torres has only made 3 errors, and never more than one a season, do the math and that's a career field percentage of .995%. As for DeRosa, well, he's supposed to make an impact. Last year he only played 26 games hitting .194 1 HR and 10 RBI and going back onto the DL for a recurring injury does not help (a torn tendon sheath). According to some sources the surgery he had before signing with the Giants was a complete failure. But there is some good news for the Giants. In the two season's before he was injured .268, with 44 HR and 165 RBI.
If you compare the two seasons, we see a few trends and one big difference:


Pitching:
2010                                     2011
1st in ER (546)                      3rd in ER (111)
1st in ERA (3.36)                    4th in ERA (3.19)
1st in Hits (1279)                   1st in Hits (249)
1st in SO(1331)                      2nd in SO (294)

Defensive:
2010                                        2011

3rd least errors (73)                4th most Errors (26)
Tied 1st in field% (.988)            Tied 2nd worst fielding% (.98)

Offensive:
2010                                         2011

7th best AVG (.257)                  13th in AVG (.234)
5th least in SO (1099)               Tied 10th most in SO (257)
13th in walks (487)                  12th in walks (103)
6th in HR (162)                      Tied 9th in HR (28)
1st in GIDP (158)                    3rd in GIDP (31)
9th in RS (697)                      15th in RS (121)


  The pitching for the Giants has been absolutely stellar. Led by Tim Lincecum, they have last year they had the fewest hits, most strikeouts, lowest ERA and gave up less runs than any other team in the NL, showing that pitching really does win championships. Combine that with one of the best fielding percentages and giving up only 73 error's, and you have the recipe for success. And to this point, the San Fran pitching has lived up to the dominating performance of last year, sitting in the top five of all 4 categories again this year. The offense from '10 to this year is almost unchanged. but looking at the defensive stats thus far in '11 and we perhaps see the issues of this years squad. They have committed the 6th most errors in the NL and have the 4th worst field percentage. Quite a drop from 2010 WS team. No matter how good your pitching is, if you throw the ball around and don't make all the routine plays, guys get on, the momentum swings to the other team. The biggest thing for the Giants is that they need to tighten the defense. If they seriously want to catch up to the Rockies, they need to play sound fundamental baseball, they kind that got them to the World Series in the first place. As I already said, this team is unchanged from last year's so it shouldn't be an issue.
On top of all this right now they have 6 current starters (7 if you include demoted 1B Brandon Belt, who was a starter), hitting below .250. I have highlighted those players on the list below(by position of the starters)


Outfield:
Pat Burrell is hitting .237 5 HR 9 RBI's and 21 SO.
Cody Ross is hitting .245, 1 HR and 5 RBI in 18 games.

Aaron Rowand is hitting .267, 1 HR, 9 RBI and 30 SO.
Nate Schierholtz .254 2 HR and 8 RBI.


Infield:
C - Buster Posey .243 4 HR 19 RBI and 22 SO.
1B - Aubrey Huff is hitting .210 3 HR 16 RBI / Belt .192 1 HR 4 RBI.

2B - Freddie Sanchez hitting .271 2 HR and 11 RBI.
SS - Mike Fontenot .233 2 HR and 7 RBI.
3B - Miguel Tejada is hitting .195 1 HR and 9 RBI.



  When your offense is struggling that much, especially Tejada and Huff, who you expect to hit for higher averages and produce more, your gonna have issues. Another stat to point out is the stolen bases. The SB leader for the Giant's is OF Darren Ford with 4, and he's not even a starter. I believe the Giants need to start being more aggressive on the base paths to try and jumpstart a sleepy offense and inject some energy in the stagnant defence and got over their World Series hangover, and maybe, just maybe they can they can overcome the lead the Rockies have on them and win the division again this year.








(ALL STATS ARE COURTESY OF  www.mlb.com)
Team Page courtesy of mlb.com:
 http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=sf&tcid=mm_col_sitelist
Team Stats courtesy of mlb.com:  http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=sf

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